In the year of the outflow boundary, it appears we have another potential chase day in Illinois. An MCS is currently located over eastern Iowa and northern Missouri and should leave an OFB in the Mississippi River vicinity this afternoon. We should see new thunderstorm development along this boundary by evening.
Strongly backed surface winds and a southerly LLJ at around 35 kts give us pretty decent low level turning that can be enhanced even more by this boundary. Surface instability on the order of4500 j/kg by 5 pm will provide the rest of the juice for supercell thunderstorms.
I'm not committed yet, but will be watching an area along a line from Galesburg, IL to Rushville, IL this evening.
July 11 2016 Litchfield /Watkins Minnesota Tornadoes
2 months ago