It's funny how one 60F degree day can totally flip my mindset into thinking it's mid-April. Once that cold front passes through the state of Illinois on Wednesday afternoon we'll quickly be snapped back to reality. Nonetheless it's nice to get out in the warm air and get working on the vehicle. I don't have a long list of preparations for the chasing season vehicle wise, as I normally don't keep most of my equipment in the car permanently mounted at all times. However, after a long winter a thorough cleaning job was needed.
The exterior was cleaned today, and I'll likely spend the day under the sunny skies and 60-70 degree temperatures cleaning out the interior and doing what little mounting I need to get done before the first chase.
On the issue of that "First Chase", Wednesday is not currently looking so hot. The models are flopping around, but at this time have picked up a much faster trend that does not bode well for tornadoes, or storm interception. A squall line will likely develop in Missouri and Arkansas Tuesday night and race into the Mississippi Valley overnight and will likely provide us our best chance for convective excitement before the cold front passes through on Wednesday. Any afternoon SVR chances will likely be contained to areas far to the east in Ohio, Kentucky and Tennessee.
This might not have been the big "First Event" that everyone was hoping, but it's clear that spring is indeed just around the corner.
Monday, February 9, 2009
Sunday, February 8, 2009
Wednesday Convective Possibilities?
Now depends on which model you want to watch at this point. The GFS has sped things up, but now that this event is within the NAM time range it's showing a considerably favorable setup for this time of the year.
It shows considerable convective activity overnight across the area with a strong dry punch swinging into central Illinois by 18Z with sbcape values AOB 1500 j/kg by 21Z. Not sure if this will remain the case, but with a synoptic system as shown this would be more than enough for supercell structures and potential tornadoes.
Time will tell, as there are huge discrepancies in the models. The new run is out in a couple hours but at of the 12Z runs GFS says early morning rain and the system is in the Great Lakes by late morning. NAM says watch out around the Interstate 70 corridor in Illinois and Indiana.
My SDS goggles are on, but my instincts at this point are leading me to believe the NAM solution for now. Not necessarily meaning that I believe in a tornadic event across the area but given past trends the GFS often will hit timing fairly well at the extended time frame, and then speed things up around 72-96 hours before slowly falling back inline with earlier runs and other model solutions. Time will tell, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the system slow back down a bit on the GFS. Whether or not this brings severe weather to the area we shall see, but at least we'll see warm air in the area for a few more hours on Wednesday than if the low swings out of here quickly.
It shows considerable convective activity overnight across the area with a strong dry punch swinging into central Illinois by 18Z with sbcape values AOB 1500 j/kg by 21Z. Not sure if this will remain the case, but with a synoptic system as shown this would be more than enough for supercell structures and potential tornadoes.
Time will tell, as there are huge discrepancies in the models. The new run is out in a couple hours but at of the 12Z runs GFS says early morning rain and the system is in the Great Lakes by late morning. NAM says watch out around the Interstate 70 corridor in Illinois and Indiana.
My SDS goggles are on, but my instincts at this point are leading me to believe the NAM solution for now. Not necessarily meaning that I believe in a tornadic event across the area but given past trends the GFS often will hit timing fairly well at the extended time frame, and then speed things up around 72-96 hours before slowly falling back inline with earlier runs and other model solutions. Time will tell, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the system slow back down a bit on the GFS. Whether or not this brings severe weather to the area we shall see, but at least we'll see warm air in the area for a few more hours on Wednesday than if the low swings out of here quickly.
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
Warm air approacheth.
Many chasers are starting to get pretty stoked at the return of warm air to the mid section of the U.S. Several troughs are indeed lining up with their aim on the central part of the country. Whether or not this brings any early season severe weather opportunities remains to be seen, but warmer air will be making it's way into many areas.
Here in central Illinois we've got a decent snow pack, but should see much of this melting down by the weekend as temperatures reach the mid 40's, and potentially 50 in areas with less snow. A second trough will enter the region next week with hints of high temperatures in the 60s here in Illinois.
I'm not getting too excited about storm chasing opportunities for my own mental health's sake, but I will likely use the warmer weather to do some work on the car to get it ready for March. Someone in a thread on the Stormtrack forum brought up the fact that there really is no "Official Storm Season" launch date, but there are psychological barriers. For me, that date is generally March 1st. While there have, and will again be winter storms beyond March 1st, I generally see this as a day as the day when I consider all things possible, and allow myself to get a little more excited about the long term models.
Whether or not we see any form of severe weather in the coming week of troughs, the warm air will be a nice change.
Here in central Illinois we've got a decent snow pack, but should see much of this melting down by the weekend as temperatures reach the mid 40's, and potentially 50 in areas with less snow. A second trough will enter the region next week with hints of high temperatures in the 60s here in Illinois.
I'm not getting too excited about storm chasing opportunities for my own mental health's sake, but I will likely use the warmer weather to do some work on the car to get it ready for March. Someone in a thread on the Stormtrack forum brought up the fact that there really is no "Official Storm Season" launch date, but there are psychological barriers. For me, that date is generally March 1st. While there have, and will again be winter storms beyond March 1st, I generally see this as a day as the day when I consider all things possible, and allow myself to get a little more excited about the long term models.
Whether or not we see any form of severe weather in the coming week of troughs, the warm air will be a nice change.
Monday, January 19, 2009
DVD Discount Price
In attempt to move out some of this stack of DVD's before the 2009 season begins I'm knocking $5 off the price of my 2008 DVD to $16.95.
For ordering information, and a detailed list of what the DVD includes, including a youtube preview video.
http://prairiestormmedia.com/2008dvd.html
For ordering information, and a detailed list of what the DVD includes, including a youtube preview video.
http://prairiestormmedia.com/2008dvd.html
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Even more tweaking...
I've redone some of the color scheme on the main page. Can't decide if it's a keep or not at this point.
prairiestormmedia.com
prairiestormmedia.com
New Layout
I'm trying to get some last minute tweaking done before the season arrives. It's January, but time is going to fly by and soon we'll be think in the season and tweaking time will be over.
I changed the blog layout and color scheme a bunch and have incorporated the new logo that I'm playing around with. Yay or nay?
I changed the blog layout and color scheme a bunch and have incorporated the new logo that I'm playing around with. Yay or nay?
Sunday, January 11, 2009
New video gallery!
Finally, a video gallery page has been added to the Prairiestorm Media website. You can reach this page and view the videos here:
http://prairiestormmedia.com/videogallery.html
http://prairiestormmedia.com/videogallery.html
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Monday, November 10, 2008
DVD delays...
As you know, I'd planned on having the DVD released by now. However, some significant things came up at the end of the month, and now for the past week I've been very sick. This is actually the first time I've been able to get up to my laptop since this past Thursday morning. While the DVD production is finished, this has prevented me from actually getting it reproduced to send off to everyone.
It's still in the plans, and won't take long to be reproduced once I get feeling a little better so stick with me!
Hopefully it's worth the wait.
It's still in the plans, and won't take long to be reproduced once I get feeling a little better so stick with me!
Hopefully it's worth the wait.
Friday, October 24, 2008
PWX 2008 Storm Chasing DVD!!
The DVD is FINISHED! I'm waiting on getting some copies made, but should have them ready in a week or so. I'm actually going to be very close to my target release date of Halloween, October 31 2008! The price will likely begin around $19.95 and then go up to a final price near $25 so get on it early. Be sure to check back for the release!
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