Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Upcoming Pattern Shift

We're still looking at a pattern shift for the better beginning this weekend. I didn't bother taking any time off of work this week so the first day I'll be considering is Saturday, April 25th.

Right now there are a couple targets worth considering. The popular one thus far has been an area along the dryline from Kansas to the Texas Panhandle. One that has yet to be mentioned, and I'll likely keep to myself (and of course the 2 people that read this blog) is eastern Iowa. This setup is not nearly as enticing as near the main triple point in Kansas, but does have some pros that have me leaning in it's direction.

Shear is not as "woo'ing" as in Kansas near the dryline, and the mid-upper level winds will be more parallel to the boundary which might favor linear convection. However, the GFS has been consistantly weakening the cap in an area in eastern Iowa -ahead- of the boundary which would lead to more unforced cellular convection. Surface winds could be more pretty, but should a storm form in this environment there will be adequate shear for supercells and possibly tornadoes.

This is not a case of not being able to chase Kansas, thus picking a closer target. I could make it to Kansas by Saturday afternoon, but with both targets in easy reach I almost want to just go with the underdog location. There will not be hoards of chasers in this area, which while not that annoying to me personally while on the chase barring a couple idiots, would mean that should a storm decide to go nuts in this area I'll be the only one around.

It's still 96 hours out, so there is no point really in trying to nail down target areas. However, it's kind of to the point where we'll all be watching the models with our targets in mind watching for model consistency.

On a non-Saturday related topic, I've been getting more and more sickened by the online chasing community. The fact that we are now turning this once pure hobby into rewarded competitions makes me want to vomit all over my keyboard. I've considered removing all online contact with the chasing community, but do want to keep touch with the good few people out there. That said, high school-ish as it may sound, I have been going through and "de-friending" the majority of chasers I'm now friends with on Facebook. Unless you're someone I really look up to or respect, or someone I chase along side (which would have to fall into that first category as well, I guess) I just don't care what you have to say. That sounds awfully rude and stuck up of me, and perhaps it is... but I just don't care what most of the people out there have to say. I don't care to have my web browser littered with 50 feaux-tornado observations, new competitions, and SPC chaser "forecasts". I'm slowly going back into recluse mode, and don't really care to have others know all of my business either.

I don't even know where I'm going with this. Point is, the chaser community has derailed, and I don't really care to be associated with it anymore. I miss the early days when I got started, when it was me and the storm. Not me, the storm, and the other 4000 people who are going to ruin my mood by the end of the day.


Dann Cianca said...

I think your Iowa target sucks and you're going to bust ... but only because it's too far away for me to drive. If I can't chase it, the setup sucks! ;) PLUS, SPC isn't even mentioning it. Psh.

Andrew Pritchard said...

Perhaps I'm staying away in preps to "cap bust your ass" like I promised, if I don't see something appear on the models for 0Z April 28?

Jarrod said...

Well said on all accounts! I feel the same way, as you already know.

Chuck said...

Just read your comments about Iowa. I was on WeatherDefender chatting and thought the same thing a few hours ago. See ya around and guess I'm the 3rd person that reads your blog.

Go Sox