4 of 5?

Throwing a stat out there that will likely jinx the day, but I have at this point, seen a tornado 100% of the time that I have chased on May 22nd. That being three of the last four years, in 2007, 08, and 10. 2009 there simply were no storms, and I was at a friend's wedding. Well here we stand, May 22nd 2011, and there is a moderate risk over the home turf.

Currently doing my morning analysis and can already see two obvious areas. The first being right around the Quad Cities, maybe the Quad Cities toward Rockford, IL. The other is further south near a remnant outflow boundary from say, Macomb to Peoria, IL. One target is under an hour drive from here, the other, maybe two hours. Hard to complain about either of those. But then you face the dilemma; do I go for the further target that looks slightly better and then risk having something go nuts right over your home area (DeKalb being 20 minutes from Rockford)? The perils of chasing.

There is a pretty obvious boundary along Interstate 72 from the Mississippi River toward Springfield. Surface winds are backing strongly along this boundary, which should slowly lift northward through the day. Cloud streets can already be seen on visible satellite imagery. Really hard to ignore that sharp boundary down there. Let's just say, there will be at least one tornado producer between Interstate 72 and the Wisconsin border across the northern half of Illinois, and I need to pick the correct one. Will try to update from the field.