Another Outflow Boundary!

In the year of the outflow boundary, it appears we have another potential chase day in Illinois. An MCS is currently located over eastern Iowa and northern Missouri and should leave an OFB in the Mississippi River vicinity this afternoon. We should see new thunderstorm development along this boundary by evening.

Strongly backed surface winds and a southerly LLJ at around 35 kts give us pretty decent low level turning that can be enhanced even more by this boundary. Surface instability on the order of4500 j/kg by 5 pm will provide the rest of the juice for supercell thunderstorms.

I'm not committed yet, but will be watching an area along a line from Galesburg, IL to Rushville, IL this evening.

June 3 2008 Manchester Illinois Tornado

Video now up from the June 3rd Manchester tornado in southwest Illinois during the evening of June 3 2008.

Kansas tomorrow?

Looks like a decent shot for supercells and tornadoes tomorrow across NE Kansas or southern Nebraska. I've already committed myself to getting up early and making the drive over tomorrow (this time of year only comes once, what the hell). Right now probably targeting the Manhattan area along Interstate 70. Maybe a little better kinematics further south, but doesn't look like the cap wants anything to do with eroding down there.

Vertical velocities are spiking with an eroded cap and surface cape of 3500 j/kg around Interstate 70 near Manhattan so I think that's as good a bet as any for some supercell activity.

Biggest concern now is slightly anemic flow at H7 and H5 the further north you get. If we can hang around I-70 we're still looking at around 45 kts of 0-6 km shear which will do supercells, and helicities at 0-3 km are peaking around 400 so tornadoes should be a threat if we get deep convection to fire.

Debated on this day for a while tonight but who knows how long the pattern and my finances will allow so might as well go all out this week.