Sunday, June 1, 2008

Kansas tomorrow?

Looks like a decent shot for supercells and tornadoes tomorrow across NE Kansas or southern Nebraska. I've already committed myself to getting up early and making the drive over tomorrow (this time of year only comes once, what the hell). Right now probably targeting the Manhattan area along Interstate 70. Maybe a little better kinematics further south, but doesn't look like the cap wants anything to do with eroding down there.

Vertical velocities are spiking with an eroded cap and surface cape of 3500 j/kg around Interstate 70 near Manhattan so I think that's as good a bet as any for some supercell activity.

Biggest concern now is slightly anemic flow at H7 and H5 the further north you get. If we can hang around I-70 we're still looking at around 45 kts of 0-6 km shear which will do supercells, and helicities at 0-3 km are peaking around 400 so tornadoes should be a threat if we get deep convection to fire.

Debated on this day for a while tonight but who knows how long the pattern and my finances will allow so might as well go all out this week.

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