Looks like things just turned for the better and I may be able to go to the entire day without setting foot in Iowa OR Missouri. Latest analysis shows that western Illinois and possible NW Illinois could be under the gun this evening. My current target is the Burlington to Quincy area along the Mississippi, but anywhere from the Quad Cities to St. Louis looks to stand a shot at a tornado or two this evening.
Convection is currently moving NE across western Missouri. Ahead of that, outflow is pushing ahead into central Missouri. This convection should begin to wane, but then regenerate into robust convection during the early afternoon hours in southeast Iowa and central and eastern Missouri. Due to the very strong shear values, supercells could be expected as the primary mode at first, with an eventual transition to a line of storms. More storms could eventually form along the cold front during the evening, but these will likely be linear as well. Tornadoes are a good bet with the first storm, and again owing to the very strong shear values with 0-1 km helicity again near 400 m2/s2 a strong tornado would not surprise me.
I don't have a definite target right now, but more of a region. I'm leaving DeKalb shortly and will likely head down 88, and Interstate 74, and begin dropping south. I may stop near Galesburg and head toward Burlington, or I may continue south towards Quincy or so. More evaluation will be done along the way as things become clear. As it stands though, western Illinois could be a good spot to be today.
July 11 2016 Litchfield /Watkins Minnesota Tornadoes
2 months ago