Potent Tuesday Setup

The models have been fluctuating back and forth a little bit on this one, but it appears a potentially volatile setup will exist across portions of Illinois on Tuesday afternoon and evening. A deepening negatively tilted trough with push into the midwest during the afternoon in conjunction with a very moist and potentially unstable air mass.

The day will begin with a large area of rain and thunderstorms across the central part of the state in advance of the warm front which can be a very sketchy way to begin a chase day. However, if played right this could aid in deepening the moisture in the area, and even lay out a boundary or two before peak heating sets in. Should the dry slot work in strong enough we could see substantial 0-3 km cape values to support low topped supercells in advance of the low and along the warm front in the warm sector across central and western Illinois. More severe storms will be possible along the cold front further south into eastern Missouri.

The extent of destabilization in the warm sector at this point is very unclear, but the potential for a potent afternoon is there. I'll be watching the area from Peoria to Quincy for now.