Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Iowa? Dare I?

Looking things over for tomorrow, telling myself "Don't even think about it." But really can't get the thought that there could be a surprise tornado event in southeast Iowa or -maybe- even NW Illinois tomorrow afternoon.

The NAM forecast qpf and associated instability are worrisome. However, being that I technically can slip away for the afternoon I am keeping an eye on the warm front. Position differs, but leaning toward the further south solution, somewhere near I-80 perhaps a little further south. The 4km WRF, fwiw, has one lone supercell over Iowa City during the evening. It does have weaker rotating storms along the WF in NW Illinois during the afternoon as well, which is something to keep in the back of your head. The NAM did speed up the arrival of the powerful shortwave and had it pushing into NW Illinois by early afternoon so given a little insolation perhaps a surprise wouldn't be that out of the question on this side of the river. Target at this point would be Ottumwa to Washington, IA, if any.

Convection will be the deal breaker tomorrow, if anything. Low should rapidly deepen over central Iowa during the afternoon spitting out more than favorable wind fields. Slap some juice under it, and I'll take the bait.

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