Sunday, April 3, 2011

NW Illinois surprise today?

I'm looking much further north than most are today.

If there is any chance for long lived discrete tornado producing supercells I can't see it being anywhere but right on the triple point in northwest Iowa, and along the Illinois/Wisconsin border. Unfortunately, this is where quality moisture will arrive last, so we may never see CI occur in this region. However, right in the moisture tongue where it curls nw ahead of the surface low I do think there will be a narrow daylight shot at an isolated supercell or two. I'd put my money somewhere around Dubuque, IA. Unfortunately this is a difficult target as it hugs the Mississippi River valley. If I feel there is a decent chance at quality moisture arriving in time, and seeing the cap erode in this region I will likely set up somewhere on the Illinois side of the river just south of the Wisconsin border. I'm optimistic that moisture will arrive literally just in time, and that forcing ahead of the low will be enough to kick off a storm before sunset. While it's certainly getting ahead of the game, I believe that if we do see a supercell or two in this region they could be quite beautiful. With these 'moisture arriving just in time' events you'll often end up with high visibility for this part of the country and perhaps some beautiful structure at twilight. That is of course, if we get a storm to go.

I feel strongly about anywhere in se Iowa and northern Missouri being nothing more than a sunset view of a ragged shelf cloud. Due to locational bias, I haven't even looked at the Kansas target.


Anonymous said...

I was afraid you'd say exactly what you said, about when/where storms might go today.

I've been watching...not far, anyway.

We are getting some really decent wind gusts in Hooterville today...but that's about it.

(From Your Unpossible Dad)

Andrew Pritchard said...

Ah yeah. Looks like down in Champaign you guys will either get a squall line around 3 AM or nothing at all! I know how you love those late night wake up calls.

Unknown said...

Well timed with the sleepercast, suddenly this event became interesting :P