Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Complicated Wednesday

I could be over anxious, but I'm trying to salvage some low-topped supercell potential tomorrow in Illinois and Indiana. My main fear was the squall line being our only hope for tomorrow, bringing a 6 AM wind threat. It looks like the squall line in Arkansas and Missouri is currently racing out ahead of the low and may actually wash out near the Mississippi River. We may see pulsing severity as it continues into KY, TN and IN, but it should race out far enough from the low to give some attempt at clearing ahead of the low.

By 10 AM, the low level dry punch should be located about 50 miles SE of St. Louis in SE Missouri. The area ahead of this in central and southern Illinois could at this time see some destabilization. 0-3 KM cape values in this area are spiking quite a bit at 18Z, which at this time is 1 PM. This is late enough to potentially see some low-topped minisupercells form on the SE side of the low in central and southern Illinois. At 21Z we see that area of 0-3 km cape shift into southern and central Indiana.

I'll likely stay at home and feel the situation out to avoid jumping to early just because I'm over anxious after a long winter.

I'd like to try and hug the warm front to maximize low level helicity and low level cape for any tiny tornado potential to be realized. I'll watch the area outlined by a Champaign, IL to Terre Haute, IN line eastward to a Lafeyette to Indianapolis line.

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