Sunday, February 8, 2009

Wednesday Convective Possibilities?

Now depends on which model you want to watch at this point. The GFS has sped things up, but now that this event is within the NAM time range it's showing a considerably favorable setup for this time of the year.

It shows considerable convective activity overnight across the area with a strong dry punch swinging into central Illinois by 18Z with sbcape values AOB 1500 j/kg by 21Z. Not sure if this will remain the case, but with a synoptic system as shown this would be more than enough for supercell structures and potential tornadoes.

Time will tell, as there are huge discrepancies in the models. The new run is out in a couple hours but at of the 12Z runs GFS says early morning rain and the system is in the Great Lakes by late morning. NAM says watch out around the Interstate 70 corridor in Illinois and Indiana.

My SDS goggles are on, but my instincts at this point are leading me to believe the NAM solution for now. Not necessarily meaning that I believe in a tornadic event across the area but given past trends the GFS often will hit timing fairly well at the extended time frame, and then speed things up around 72-96 hours before slowly falling back inline with earlier runs and other model solutions. Time will tell, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the system slow back down a bit on the GFS. Whether or not this brings severe weather to the area we shall see, but at least we'll see warm air in the area for a few more hours on Wednesday than if the low swings out of here quickly.

1 comment:

Dann Cianca said...

My SDS goggles brought me out on Sunday and it was totally worth it. Look how pretty she looks! You won't regret it in the morning. :)