Thursday, March 11, 2010

Dwindling Minisupercell Potential

Still not overly impressed, but there is time for improvement and being a local day I have all the time in the world (or until sunet, whichever ends first) to sit and wait for that improvement to occur. If I had to pick a target today, it would be somewhere near Mattoon, IL. That's about 40 miles south of me here in Champaign so I'm content sitting on my butt until things become clear.

Warm air is still killing off instability, with a nice thick warm layer at H7. In addition to that, hodographs are as good as they're going to get right at this very moment. I'm only concerned about the lower levels, but even that bottom portion is not all that impressive. Areas near I-57 still have decent turning, but really lack on the velocity end towards afternoon. Both of these factors don't leave much room for hope. The RUC is especially negative in keeping warmer H5 temperatures than the NAM, but seems to be falling more in line with the NAM on subsequent runs allowing for slightly better low level cape values. It's probably about time to be done looking at the models though, and just start hoping and praying and wishing or what have you that the inversion at 700 mb slacks and the low level wind fields do not. If we can get a little help, I could still see a minisupercell or two forming near Interstate 57 from Champaign to Effingham. My hopes are not all that high right now, and I'm only giving it this much attention for the lack of effort it will take on my end to intercept if things do turn for the better. This isn't the best stomping grounds as things can get hilly once you get closer to the Wabash River, but it is what it is.

That would get it done if we're talking low topped supercells, but this is assuming less screwy H7 temperatures as well which remains to be seen.

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