Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Next week?

I haven't updated for a while, but there has been nothing really worth mentioning. People are gungho again for this weekend, and like always I'm the pissy nay-sayer, but again I just do not see it. March 8th has ruined people. Now every single low pressure system that crosses the continental US will produce tornadoes and must be chased! Chasers from all over will be getting a sun tan in various locations of the central plains tomorrow. If you live in the area and are going to keep an eye on things, that would be one thing, but I really can not fathom long distancing this one or even really canceling plans if I -did- live in the area. Shallow moisture and an outrageous cap will keep things quiet until after dark, when elevated storms may develop along the retreating dryline when it intersects the cold front, likely across central Nebraska and Kansas. Congratulations, you just drove 500 miles for a night time lightning display which will be a dime a dozen in a couple months. I suppose when I see my facebook newsfeed light up with cell phone photos and reports of a large supercell breaking the cap you are all free to track me down and force me to eat my crow. Or perhaps I'm not a true chaser? Because as I stated, chasing every single low pressure system with dew points over 30F is what quantifies being a dedicated chaser. Meanwhile, my guess is that a few chasers who will have that massive supercell all to themselves tomorrow evening because they are the truly dedicated souls, will not leave their homes during the first legit event that strikes two states away from their door steps. My how the dedication will quickly disappear. Wow. That's getting way off pace.

Anyway. I had nothing to write but figured I would just open up a blank entry and see where I got for the sake of updating and sure opened a can of worms on that one. Friday looks like a waste as well. Again, a waste for someone who is planning on making a long trek. I'm sure someone somewhere will find a dust poof under a shelf cloud on the linear complex of storms to prove me wrong. I don't blame those in the TX/OK area for keeping an eye on things, but I'm willing to bet it ends up as a linear event in Missouri and northern Arkansas. We will likely get to experience some thunder early on Saturday morning here in Illinois, but my attention is largely on next week. I realize last year largely sucked, and this has been a slow starting year but you've got to be patient. Just because the pattern has been BS, doesn't mean you need to chase BS. A slow pattern doesn't make a meager setup any less meager and I fail to see how a 1200 round trip with a disappointed drive home is going to make it an easier on your mental well being. I honestly can't even see how this can be a slow year already when we have only just begun to get into the season. It's like your favorite baseball team starting the season by losing their first two games and writing the season off. The numbers are down this year, that I do not doubt. But where are those February and early March tornadoes traditionally found? In the southeast and gulf states. Especially in an El Nino year such as this. Are you telling me that you are really missing out on those tornadoes that you would have otherwise seen in Georgia and Alabama in a more active early season? No.

My attention right now is on early next week. Tuesday to be more specific. The GFS is gungho about Monday the 5th, but I do not buy that for a second right now. Each model run is all over the place, but for another reason added to the list that I do not understand about some chasers right now, people are eating it up. The thing has lied and lied, and shown a consistent bias on being too fast, yet a week out people are taking off work for Monday when all other signs and some reasoning right now show Tuesday the 6th to be the more promising day. The scenario that my eyes and gut see playing out right now, is a more traditional "day before the day" potential in the western plains on Monday with possibly a supercell or two, but not the display that will likely follow the next day. A couple good storms could be in store for local chasers, or those who want to be out a day early, though I think the two targets will be some distance apart on the two days. It has been my feeling for the last day or two that the Iowa area, or areas very near there could be in store for a classic tornado day on Tuesday April 6th. The GFS does not know what to do with that energy; how to eject it, where to kink it, etc. The euro, among other models has been slower and deeper ejecting the system late on Monday and really digging it in on Tuesday likely setting up a prime region in Iowa and Missouri. That's even fairly specific for this far out, but this is the general location and time frame I would be concerned about. Again, I'm sure my gut is lying to me, and some lone supercell will go tornado crazy on Monday, but again, I'm resting all my cards on Tuesday. How the system evolves after that will effect whether or not any subsequent tornado days lie ahead.

For now, I think any reasonable forecaster has to almost completely cast aside the GFS due to it's inconsistencies and proven fast bias at this time frame. I'll continue using a mix of the ecmwf and a couple other models, climatology, and gut feelings in watching what in my opinion could be a very good start to the 2010 chase season for many on Tuesday.


Adam L said...

lol the day I see chasers from KS/OK/TX coming to IL to chase SEE TEXTs is the day I will let them tell me Im not a real chaser for not chasing every marginal setup.

Andrew Pritchard said...

Exactly my point. We are "scoffing" at a day with hidden potential for not chasing a see text in Oklahoma... but show me the day when they are even seen browsing the models on a marginal day a couple states away.