Saturday, May 22, 2010

Saturday Potential

Well, I'm committing to eastern South Dakota this morning. Will be leaving the lake house here in Wisconsin in about a half hour, still targeting the Mitchell, SD area. That may be a bit too far east, but should be a decent starting point. Should be a very easy drive across southern Minnesota down Interstate 90 which should have me in a decent position shortly after the lunch hour which should be more than adequate given today's cap potential.

Complex of thunderstorms is currently working over the central part of South Dakota and areas to the north. Current hope is that this could potentially lay an outflow boundary along the I-90 corridor which intersecting the dryline towards afternoon could provide a focus for supercell development. Towards evening, surface convergence should increase along the dryline as winds back out of the southeast ahead of the dryline, and begin to veer out of the southwest behind it. Surface convergence will likely be greater to the north, which is why I've chosen South Dakota as opposed to a Nebraska target further south. Assistance of a shortwave at H5 on the order of 50-60 knot should finally be able to get isolated severe thunderstorms to develop by evening in my target area. Looking at some very large hail, and then the potential for a couple tornadoes, a couple of which could be fairly substantial.

I better quit dragging my feet I guess. Sometimes these drives end up being a little longer than I anticipate, and it wouldn't be the first time I relaxed on a cap day thinking stuff would not go until late evening only to be still driving toward tornado warned storms by mid-afternoon while I'm still two hours away. Planning to stop around Sioux Falls for a data check and lunch, but Mitchell seems good.

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