Tuesday, June 8, 2010

Redemption. Part two.

Really liking a corridor from Jacksonville to Peoria in western Illinois today for a few tornadic supercells. Early morning MCS clearing out very early with clearing skies almost to the Mississippi River. A couple hours is all it usually takes along these Illinois warm front / ofbs and it appears we will get at least that. By 0z the instability tongue should reach in along and south of the warm front from Missouri into central Illinois reaching approximately the Bloomington area. Along the warm front, long looping hodographs will definitely favor supercell development and assuming ample instability return, which appears to be the case, tornado development. Again, given sufficient destabilization 0-1 km helicity values on the order of 200 m2/s2 along the warm front a significant tornado is possible in western Illinois in that triangle.

Visible satellite trends will need monitored closely over the afternoon, but I think a regional tornado event could be unfolding this evening where the instability tongue intersects the heightened low level shear over western Illinois.

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