Stormy Wednesday

Holding off on chasing today, though I do think there is some potential in southwest Iowa this evening. I was targeting the Red Oak, IA area, but am going to hold off on chasing. The replacement grille for the mazda should be arriving in a matter of hours, so I'll just spend the day getting that replaced (though it should take maybe 20 minutes) and relaxing as I just returned home from the Wisconsin trip yesterday evening. Tia and I "roughed it" with a tent placed out in a field surrounded by trees, and ticks. I had heard rumblings that the ticks were bad this year, and boy are they ever. Tia managed to acquire three ticks in the span of one 8 hour night. She was less than thrilled.

Wow. Okay. Southwest Iowa looking better and better. I'd be there at 7 or 8 PM though if I left right now. Argh. There should be a beast of a supercell around Red Oak, Iowa this evening. Looks like I'll be stuck waiting for the local mess we'll have in Illinois tomorrow. The lack of a focused area of convergence or stronger shortwave is the only thing keeping me at home today, hopefully not for loss. The RUC does develop a warm front of sorts right in my target and erupts an area of deep convection however, but we'll see how that plays out. Wondering if the weaker upper level flow won't result in HP storm mode as well. Nothing to be done now, as I'm well beyond my time of departure.

Tomorrow there will be severe weather in the central Illinois region, but I'm having a hard time twisting my head looking at the monitor sideways while hopping on one foot to find any tornado potential. The only saving grace is the fact that it is June in Illinois, and there should be an outflow boundary involved. More than likely we'll see a large area of strong to severe convection erupt along Interstate 72 by early afternoon. The only hope for anything supercellular at this time, would be very very early in the system's evolution, as an upscale growth into training storms seems likely. I guess it will just be nice to not have to drive far and just watch some storms. There will be a nice 50-60 knot jet with the shortwave as it ejects into central Illinois during the afternoon. However below it, no real turning to speak of. Surface winds should veer to southwesterly by afternoon south of the boundary as it sags to the south, lending towards linear training storm modes in the area. Target for tomorrow will be the livingroom down here in Urbana until initiation occurs it would appear. My region for anything interesting tomorrow is around Decatur to Champaign to Mattoon in central to eastern Illinois. GFS slightly better directional shear, but no speed shear. Bah. At least I don't have to drive anywhere, right?

One advantage we have for tomorrow, is the hope for change. When dealing with the likely scenario of a complex convective situation for today (day 1) it can have adverse affects on the day 2 situation. Whatever happens today could drastically affect tomorrow's forecast, for the worse, or better! For that reason, I'll hold off on whining or griping on the forecast for tomorrow.

Here's a shot of Tia and my resting spot over the holiday weekend. Ticks aside, it was an awesome little spot.