Saturday, June 5, 2010

Yesterday's Supercells and Today's HP Forecast

Excellent chase yesterday minus a tornado. I expected maybe a couple marginal tornadoes yesterday, but instead was treated to a couple gorgeous supercells in western Illinois near Macomb. The following photos are from near Astoria, Illinois at 6:30 PM. The hail shot is near Havana near sunset.

Today... looking like HP supercells in eastern Iowa and northern Illinois this evening. Perhaps a late show in Illinois, but that remains to be seen. I do see a few tornadoes being likely, possible a strong tornado, but don't expect a major outbreak at this point. I'd like to stay in Illinois, but right now I'm concerned that thing may not erupt until almost sunset. At this point in the morning my target is Iowa City. Most of Iowa should be convection free by noon, and rapidly become unstable. Sbcape values near 5000 j/kg are not unreasonable. Hmmm. I don't know. I think stuff will go in Iowa first, but I think northern Illinois has the best shot at significant tornadoes this evening. Perhaps I'll sit around the Quad Cities and wait? Or just be a man and stay in Illinois and wait it out. I really like a beast or two from Iowa City to Ottumwa by 5 PM, but think supercells will rapidly develop near Interstate 80 in northern Illinois near sunset.

Most likely scenario, I get on the road and make an impulse decision and rue the day. Either way, I like Ottumwa, IA to LaSalle, IL for a big tornado this evening.

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