Friday, April 2, 2010

Quick update before the holiday

I'm heading back to Champaign-Urbana for the holiday weekend and won't likely be on the computer much so just throwing a quick update out there before doing so. Next weekends system is getting closer, and more and more clear. Still holding onto Tuesday being the more widespread severe day of the week. Looks like a typical early season moderate to high risk day over Iowa and Missouri with fast moving line segments and supercells. It could be a good tornado event, but may pose chasing issues with storm speeds. The terrain should be doable though, so I could see a few chasers having excellent days on Tuesday April 6th.

Monday showing some warm front potential. I'm still not sold on the Kansas tornado probs yet, as there are some phasing issues. The only play I see in that area is going to be right on the triple point. More importantly, I think a tornado potential needs to be watched further east along the warm front into the Missouri and Iowa borders. Adequate instability, incredible hodographs and stronger low level winds look to setup in that area. Whether the juice is there remains to be seen, but at this rate the Iowa and Missouri border is where I would watch for Monday afternoon and evening. I could be sold on Kansas down the road, but I am not yet.

Things really get cranking after that as the low deepens near Omaha during the first half of Tuesday. I've pretty well laid out my thoughts on that day already. The day is still not garnering that much attention, but I'm confident it will soon. It's 4-5 days out yet, but I'm willing to bet it's the first moderate to high risk tornado prob of the year, likely encompassing Iowa and Missouri.

One could probably sit on Interstate 35 on the IA/MO border and be fine both days to start off.

That said, Happy Easter everyone... I hope travels are safe and times are good!

No comments: