Big Day Thursday

Looking for a potential big severe event in central Illinois and eastern Iowa tomorrow. We may see somewhat of a wind threat overnight if storms in Nebraska currently manage to congeal into a bow echo and progress eastward along the instability gradient into central Illinois.

In the early afternoon tomorrow, a warm front should extend primarily along Interstate 74 from Iowa City, IA to Champaign, IL. The 4 km WRF shows extreme instability with surface cape values pushing 6500 j/kg and low level helicities averaging around 250 m2/s2 along the warm front where surface winds back to the SE. Looks like the cap erodes along the warm front in eastern Iowa and northwest to central Illinois. If this happens, explosive supercell development would be favored. Another favored area will be northern Iowa, but I will cap bust all day before heading to Iowa for this one.

At this point for Thursday I'll be targeting anywhere between Iowa City, IA to Peoria, IL. If the mcs scenario does not play out completely different than the models are currently hinting at and we see something like the models showed on the 12z runs, I'd look for a couple significant tornadoes in eastern Iowa and NW Illinois.

Severe weather tomorrow.

Stage could be set for a significant severe weather event tomorrow across eastern Missouri and central / southern Illinois tomorrow. Likely more of a damaging wind threat than a tornado threat, though a tornado threat could exist further west later in the day. A strong bow echo will likely be in progress early in the morning, which will continue across the southern part of the state, likely along and south of Interstate 72 tomorrow. Significant wind damage may occur with this system.

Further west, should the bow echo leave the area early enough in the afternoon I could see a supercell and tornado threat developing near the St. Louis area in SW Illinois and eastern Missouri along the warm front and outflow boundary left by the first round. I may play the early bow echo for some wind fun, but afterward I'll have my eyes peeled to SW Illinois close to St. Louis. There's a good chance that subsidence and a cap will likely kill this chance, but should things begin to erode I'd look for a couple big supercells in that area.

Going Local

Decided to pass on taking the week on the plains this week. Car repairs have taken their toll at a non-ideal time, so rather than screw myself for the rest of the season I'm going to spend this week here working and getting some money, while chasing locally. It looks like starting mid-week there should be off and on severe chances in the midwest. The plains will be shooting MCS's at the Mississippi River valley each day, and those will be laying down boundaries here and there that could lead to future severe thunderstorm development. Chances this week should be in the high plains, and southern Mississippi Valley area, but the threat will move north as time goes on. I'd look at Wednesday through Saturday as a potential window for severe thunderstorms in the IL/IA/MO corridor. I wish buddies Mark Sefried and Darin Kaiser much luck out there this week, but for me it was too big a gamble with potential local ops coming. Goshen County, Wyoming looks to produce again today!



In unrelated news, I'll officially be moving to DeKalb, IL this fall to finish the final two years of a BS in Meteorology at Northern Illinois University.

June 7th 2009 Seneca, KS Time Lapse

With the lack of tornado production this season I've taken quite the interest in time lapse videos. The video has not been super interesting, but at least speeding it up 5 times makes it a little more interesting. Maybe.

TireRack.Com

Well, the car is back running 100%, no thank you to Tires Plus Total Car Care in Champaign, IL. After the previous happenings with the broken rim, I waited seven days for the replacement rim to come in before finally giving them a call to see what the deal was. I was told I'd have to wait two or three days, tops. I give them a call, and the guy tells me he was just on his way out to go pick it up and would have it in twenty minutes. Probably half an hour later as I am heading out the door, he calls me back to inform me that they had the wrong rim. He said that if I wanted he could put that one on to get me by for now, while he continued looking for the right rim. How long was that going to be?! I told him I'd think about it, and get back to him.

After that, I logged on to TireRack.Com, found my rim, found the two tires, placed my order and 20 hours later had them delivered to my doorstep. I even paid for the 2-3 day shipping, but it didn't even take a full day. Tires Plus = 7 Days to find me the wrong rim. TireRack.Com = 20 hours to deliver the right rim, plus two tires to my front door. From now on I will be going with TireRack.Com 100% of the time for my tire needs, and perhaps more. I'd highly recommend them to anyone.

NE Kansas today

Will be targeting SE Nebraska and NE Kansas today. Anywhere from Beatrice, NE to Topeka, KS looks primed. At the very least we should see some rigorous supercells this evening, producing big hail. The cap does not worry me today as much as the LCL's do. Will need to hug the warm front where they'll be low enough for a good tornado potential. With the forecasted instability (being overdone on the RUC, but still expect a good 3500 j/kg) and wind fields, should a storm form and become surface based a couple significant tornadoes. At the moment, the Topeka to Kansas City corridor is looking dangerous.

Will be sitting in Holton, Kansas awaiting any action.

Cap bust!

Cap busted today, but at least was with good company. Made the trip with Mark Sefried from Peoria, and ultimately met up with Scott Kampas, Colin Davis, Mike Hollingshead, and Scott Weberpal. Was actually the first time I'd met Scott Weberpal, so at least something was accomplished today! I had my 'Wisconsin' shirt on, just for him.

Tomorrow is just screaming Topeka, Kansas.

SW Iowa Today

Looks like southwest Iowa will be as good a place as any this afternoon and evening. Low over southern Nebraska should continue to push eastward to near Omaha by this afternoon. With the aid of the earlier mcs dew points in southern Iowa are in the lower 60s. Surface winds should remain backed ahead of this low, and along the surface front / outflow boundary. Cape will be higher further southwest in eastern Kansas, but LCL's will be a lot better in SW Iowa, and the cap will be a lot weaker. If any storm can go up just ahead of the low and along the ofb I think it stands a chance at producing a tornado.

Current target is Red Oak, Iowa.

Heading West

My car -still- remains without a right rear wheel, but thanks to the generosity of Mark Sefried we will be heading west this morning. Not a real hard forecast this morning, but hinging on a lot of things, namely a potential stout cap. Another issue is the current presence of an mcv over western Iowa. While this could help with moisture return, it also needs to clear out of the area early enough to not leave a ton of subsidence in it's wake.

Current thinking is the Omaha area. Models continue to break out precip in that general area. My guess is we'll end up 50 miles SW or NE of Omaha in SE Nebraska or SW Iowa.

My claim of the year.

I'm saying it right now, regardless of what the models show.

Monday, June 8 will be the tornado outbreak of 2009.

The models don't show a favorable scenario right now, 96 hours out, but I'm willing to bet based on trends that I have seen this year that as time plays out this will continue to trend towards being the biggest day of this potential three day weekend that we're seeing.

I'm not thrilled with Saturday, and Sunday continues to look less favorable. I think these have the potential to be tornado producers but I'm going for my Nostradamus '09 award and saying right now that my gut says wait for Monday. I'd watch the mid-Mississippi River Valley near in Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri for a potential tornado outbreak. The models don't show this at this point, but based on trends that I've seen and my gut I'd say watch for it.