Friday Potential Update

My forecast is almost identical to the one I made yesterday concerning this matter.

I seem to be the only one, but I'm still very confident in a couple tornado warned storms and likely a couple tornadoes in eastern Missouri and possibly western/southwestern Illinois tomorrow afternoon and evening. Still looking at my target from yesterday as Columbia to St. Louis to Quincy.

Stratiform precip along the warm front should slow the warm front down a bit, but I believe it will lift to around Chillicothe MO to St. Louis by early afternoon. Ideally some clearing will allow for rapid destabilization ahead of the shortwave punching out from the plains which will be entering central MO by early afternoon. The remnants of the wave from the plains should be entering Missouri around that time with the shortwave, possible in the form of an MCV. Just ahead of this wave and along the warm front is where I would want to be, which should set up in my target triangle.

Perhaps I'll be the only stupid chaser in this area busting under rain showers, but I'm pretty confident in a couple supercells at this point.