That's what I get for going to Iowa

Yesterday was probably the most frustrating chase day I've had in some time. I'm just lucky that a tornado event did not occur, or I might have retired right then. From the get go it had the feeling of a crappy day. I should have turned around then. Right away my laptop is having issues connecting to the internet because my phone continues to say it has "No Connection". Shortly down the road my GPS quits updating, but that is quickly fixed. After becoming convinced that I just won't have data on my laptop today and being content that I can call someone for a nowcast if I need it my phone quits working altogether. It is now telling me to "Insert Smart Card" or Sim card as they're sometimes known. I keep yelling at my phone "It's in there damn it!". This is especially annoying because if it doesn't sense the sim card it does not operate. No phone calls, texts, and certainly no data. Taking the battery out and letting it rest seems to do no good either as I had hoped.

Then my stomach hits me. I quickly pull off at the very first rest stop that I see on the other side of Peoria and empty out my system, right next to a trucker who seemed to be having the same problem. I can deal with technology not working on a chase, but not with my body not functioning. I feel better now though, and decide to hit the road. Before driving I try my phone again... it WORKS. It connects to the internet and everything. However, it disconnects 5 minutes later and then upon reconnecting shuts down telling me to insert the sim card. I -really- should have just gone home.

I continued on though, stopping in Ottumwa. The day was already looking down (of course after I texted the comrades in the field that the day was looking up in their backyard). I decided I was in as good a spot as any in Ottumwa, even though my eyes told me that the best stuff was passing me up and heading for northern and central Illinois. I stopped and sat inside an Arby's for over an hour going over data before deciding to leave. Storms were going up in northern Missouri and eastern Iowa and I had to make a call on where to go. My phone wasn't working once I pulled out of the parking lot, but after more finicking I got it to work for me. It seemed that I could get it to work for about 20 minutes at a time, before having to take the battery out and let it sit for 5 minutes, and then repeating. I decided to take a peak at a storm just to my south, which was producing reported tennis ball sized hail and had some rotation on radar. It quickly gusted out and was not very pretty. So I decided my best bet was to head into Illinois and play with anything that developed there. I plotted my course and started flying east. Of course then my stomach rolls over again, and I quickly blast into a gas station and drop off another load. Then, I was on my way again and just ready to be home.

I saw it about a half second before I hit it. The biggest hold on the side of the road that I've ever seen. I've been making the joke, that it seemed like someone must have been digging a tunnel to China in the freaking road. I clobbered it with the right side of my vehicle. I had all my windows down, and sunroof open so I could immediately hear hiss hiss hiss hiss hiss hiss. Every time it hit a certain position air would leak out. I had heard about this "Fix a flat" product, and bought a can just for kicks not two weeks ago and decided to see if it actually worked. I quickly whipped it out with thunder growing ever louder from the squall line that I was outrunning, but was now a sitting duck to. I hooked up the can and filled up my tire. Well, hope that works! Got in my car and start backing up... hiss hiss hiss hiss. Well, that means one of two things really. Either the product doesn't work, or I have a big problem. I angrily got out, threw everything out of my trunk and tossed my spare tire on the ground. The thunder was getting pretty loud now with cg striking nearer and nearer. Funny enough, just two days ago I was changing Tia's back right tire for her after she blew it on something. Lucky I was in well practiced form and would have the tire changed shortly. All except the very last lug nut were very cooperative. No matter what I did, that thing wouldn't budge. I was slowly stripping not the lug nut, but the inside of my tire iron. I was getting more and more pissed thinking that I would have to call someone with one of those pressurized deals, for ONE LUG NUT. I was ready to slam the tire iron into the ground, if I wasn't so convinced that with my luck it would break in half and I'd be really screwed then. I fidgeted with it for a while, took a break to piss on a nearby tree and went back to work quickly getting it off. After that I quickly had my spare tire on and was on my way. I don't know what the general rule of thumb is for distance to travel on a spare tire, but I know it's not very much. I had a 230 mile journey ahead of me back to home. This would have to be traveled at about 40-45 mph too. Oh yeah, and changing the filthy tire I realized I was wearing a brand new Chicago Cubs / Fukudome t-shirt that was WHITE, that I had picked up from Wrigley Field after a game. I'm not that picky about my clothes, but come on. That would happen the day I wear my one white shirt. I managed to keep all the black filth on my hands and pants however.

Anyway, pissed off and full of regret for even chasing that day (when I was more excited about the marginal chances the next day (today)). I decided I would nurse the car home on the spare tire, a 5 hour drive that should have taken about 2.5-3 hours. Rather than take the interstate I just took Highway 136 all the way to Highway 150 and that back home. I managed to cool myself off with some loud music and a relaxing drive home with the light show to my north. That was interrupted periodically by multiple groups of deer just hanging out in the middle of the highway. Perhaps it was good that I was running on my spare tire and was only doing 45 mph, or I might have bigger problems on my hands with a new hood ornament.

Anyway. I nursed the car home and pulled in around midnight with the plans of getting up at 7 and taking the tire in to be repaired in the case that something worthwhile goes up locally today. Not 5 minutes after sitting down at Tires Plus the guy comes back and tells me what I already knew, but did not want to hear. I needed a new rim, and two new tires. His estimate: $620. That sounds about right for a capper to this chase! The new rim was going to run me about $290, but he calls back regretfully after I leave to tell me he can't find a new one in stock, but he found a used one in good shape for $140. Why would you not tell me that I had the option of saving 60% ahead of time? That saves $150. My car, as much as I love it, has the one really big downfall of taking low profile expensive sport tires. The first time I got new tires on that thing I nearly shat myself in the lobby. I'm trying to find a pair online to save a few bucks, but they'll still probably run my around $120-150 each. My cell phone is still not working, but I don't really feel like dealing with that today.

That was about as aggravating as they came. I guess I can at least look at it positively that I did not miss any tornadoes, or even any really amazing storms. The car will be out of commission until about Thursday or Friday, but it doesn't look like there will be any chaseable storms before then.

Outflow Boundary Help

Targeting Ottumwa, IA today. Not thinking I need to be as far west as some are targeting today. Extreme instability should build into NE MO/SE IA and western Illinois this evening. That, combined with the best upper level support in the area and OFB's interacting with the stationary boundary could be enough for a few tornadoes today. Would look for the Ottumwa, IA to Kirksville, MO area to be pretty active around 6 PM.

Yesterday and Tomorrow

Managed another decent chase yesterday. As I had a hunch, the models where way off on handling yesterday's setup. Seemed the models were keeping thing way too far south, so I kept my day open. Sure enough, around 4 PM cells rapidly fired across central Illinois, and I picked one off around Clinton. Followed it for it's entire track across eastern Illinois, letting it go near the Indiana border watching it's backside as it scooted away. The storm wound up pretty tight a couple times, but struggled with being elevated much of it's life span.

Not a bad chase op at all though. I've seen two great supercells in two days without filling up my gas tank, and still have over a half a tank left.

Tomorrow is a tough call. I think there will be tornado reports, and it's obvious they'll be on the warm front, but they could end up anywhere from central Illinois (maybe even western Indiana) all the way to southern Nebraska. I'm inclined to say southern Iowa looks the best right now, right along the IA/MO border, but western Illinois looks half decent as well and I'd never let it go if I missed the only Illinois tornado show of 09 because I was in Iowa. It is Iowa though, so it will produce if I don't go, and won't produce if I do. Right now my gut says the best parameters are over southern Iowa, and my brain says "Don't do it, Illinois will find a way to go nuts the second you cross the River". I guess I'll decide tomorrow.

Target in Illinois would be the Peoria area, and in Iowa I'd do the Creston to Osceola area.

Couple photos from yesterday:

Wall cloud near Arcola, IL exhibiting the best rotation of the day:

Minisupercell at Sunset!

As I had hoped, what storms formed yesterday were very photogenic! Stuck to my plan and only chased what came locally and wound up with a pretty minisupercell just 15 miles from home in southern Champaign County near sunset. The storm tracked southeastward, developing a wall cloud near Tolono, and then becoming a pretty striated storm further south in no man's land.

Not holding my breathe for any chasing today, though I'll be keeping an eye in south central Illinois this evening. Looking at the models I'm fairly convinced any supercells that form should be over far southeast Illinois, southern Indiana and Kentucky. However, looking at real-time data, I would not rule out a decent storm or two in central or south central Illinois. Probably along a Bloomington to St. Louis line early, and then moving SE into southeastern Illinois. I'll keep an eye on it though, and should it appear we'll get development far enough north and west I may poke around. A couple friends of mine asked if I'd be around to film their new band's first show this evening so unless it appears things may go tornadic I'll probably choose to sit this one out. Monday and now even Tuesday continue to look more interesting, and over chaseable areas of the midwest. Today looks like a good day to watch from the laptop, with the Cub's on t.v. starting at 3:30!

Here are a couple photos of the minisupercell from yesterday evening...

Isolated Severe / Photo Op

Looking for a couple thunderstorms to pop in central Illinois this evening. Not looking at widespread severe weather, and certainly not a tornado event (disclaimer: stranger things have happened.)

Dry air will prevent too much in the way of severe weather, but could actually lend itself to some photogenic opportunities on any storms that do develop. I'm not chasing this one, but will watch for any local development and a potential jog through the country to shoot some convection. I'd look for a couple storms between Decatur and Danville around 6 PM. Nothing too impressive but a couple severe thunderstorm warnings primarily for hail seem possible.

Looking further out it seems increasingly likely that we'll see another round of thunderstorms with isolated severe reports primarily of the damaging wind variety early tomorrow morning. These should push into the NW portion of Illinois before sunrise, and affect central IL in the late morning hours.

Sunday, any severe threat will probably be west of this area in Iowa and Minnesota, with very isolated storms possible further south into Missouri. I'd look for Monday for our next good severe weather event. Details are unclear at this point as to severe coverage and storm mode, but Iowa, northern Illinois and southern Minnesota and Wisconsin look to be the main targets for this one.

Upcoming severe chances...

I think we've got more of a mid-late June pattern taking effect here, which is really going to favor two areas. Those two areas being the upslope flow along the Rockies, namely in central/eastern Colorado into western Nebraska and Wyoming and the other being the midwest in areas from the NE/IA/MN/IL corridor.

Their should be several good days along the front range of the Rockies where upslope flow interacting with any shortwaves ejecting eastward could net some sculpted supercells and potential landspout play for high plains chasers.

Further east we'll see the late June style pattern set in, with a stationary boundary stretching from Nebraska into the mid-Mississippi valley under at times very favorable NW flow. Typically you'll see a severe threat anywhere along this stationary front as it wobbles north and south, being enhanced by any embedded shortwaves in the NW flow, and any outflow boundaries from overnight convection. It's certainly not everyone's first pick, but you can come away with some beefy supercells early on from these setups, often of the HP variety. It's not the first choice for tornado viewing, but can be fruitful from a convective standpoint. The Interstate 80 corridor from Grand Island, NE to Chicago, IL is often a good place to be during a pattern such as this.

We'll see how things play out. Late May and early June instability will be in place, but whether we get some good waves embedded in the NW flow will be the key. Already looks like a potentially good day in eastern Iowa on Friday if enough moisture can arrive in time behind this tropical low that's finally moving on out.

Supercells associated with tropical remnants

Hadn't really planned on chasing anything yesterday, but knew the tropical low remnants would be in the area, so I kept one eye on the forecast models hoping for a little more deep layer shear. I woke up to see an MCD from the Storm Prediction Center discussing possible brief tornadoes in south central Illinois and eastern Missouri. I took a look at the current data (as it was already noon) and sure enough, there was some sort of convergence boundary firing off rounds of thunderstorms, that interacting with the low level shear and warm front associated with the tropical low were getting some spin and producing at least a few funnel clouds. You know you're in trouble when you have to validate your own reasons for chasing to yourself, but I had all this time off FOR chasing so I might as well try and chase -something- in this dreadful pattern. My target was only a little over an hour away, anyway. It was certainly worth the drive if something were to happen.

En route a couple tornado warnings were issued for cells in my target area, right along Interstate 55. I targeted one area that seemed to continually regenerate convection in the same area, producing funnel clouds. Certainly things seemed to be coming together in this area. There was a very good bullseye of the lovely 0-3km Cape/Surface Vorticity in this area, 2000 j/kg surface based cape and a little patch of 200 m2/s2 low level helicity. Winds were due east along the warm front. Nothing above 800 mb however, so sustained convection would be hard to come by.

I intercepted my first cell near Litchfield. Despite it's piddly radar appearance the storm had a decent rain free base with low level inflow bands feeding into it. Low level clouds had eroded so I had a nice view of the entire storm, RFB up to the updraft tower. This storm wasn't around long though, as it quickly dissolved into nothing.

I dropped south a bit more, to an area near Staunton, where I was treated to a dying LP-type storm. Despite a healthy, but small rain free base, this storm also was not around long.

I saw more substantial returns showing up near Vandalia moving my way, but their shape was not supercellular at all. This was about the only show in town anymore though, so I not so happily plotted my intercept. Dropping down Highway 4 in Macoupin County I got visual of a newly forming storm. This one had "the look". It's precip core on the northern end was very dark, and had a very thick inflow tail feeding into it. The other thing that I noticed, the surface winds which had been very light the entire day were now screaming eastward into the storm at sustained 25 mph. A look like that, with inflow such as it was pulling in prompted me to stop before the storm's radar appearance really showed anything substantial.

I dropped south to the Highway 4 and Highway 138 junction near Marine, IL where I got a view of the RFB of the new supercell. This one really took off, with a nice black base, with an inflow tail quickly developing and feeding into it on the northern end. Several times I thought it might produce underneath. However, the problem today was way too much convection. Shortly after really tightening up, a small cell was quickly pulled into the main supercell's eastern side. This obscured any view of the base, and required a regrouping phase before things got back together. I wondered if this would be the end of my cell, but radar and visually it became apparent that it would try again once the smaller cell was successfully absorbed.

I repositioned north on Hwy 4 and west on Fruit Road, just east of Edwardsville where the storm really took off. It was now a well organized, striated supercell. The entire updraft base exhibited broad rotation. Very organized low level rotation however, was never achieved. While it looked good a couple times, it was never able to come truly close to tornadogenisis before again, a smaller cell would interfere with it's inflow.

The supercell regrouped one more time, but was very elevated and showed no further signs of being of any threat other than heavy rains so I bailed on it and plotted my way home. I was treated to a nice sunset, followed by a nice crescent moon between low level clouds as I listened to the Cubs lose their 8th straight game on my way home.

It was no an ideal chase for late May, but in a down year such as this I'll take what I can get. Any other May, and I probably don't give this setup the time of day. But, lack of anything at all on the forecast models, and all this time set aside purely for chasing netted a decent surprise down there.

A couple photos, and a timelapse video.




The slow timelapse shows the problems that this supercell faced with interfering convection. Watch in the first half, as my first view of the storm's rain free base is slowly obscured by a gray haze as the smaller cell is absorbed.

Video from the last two chases

Got a couple lame video clips up from the last two chases.

The first is from the May 13 2009 chase in northern Missouri. Hung back too long and missed the big tornadoes, however one almost had to get hit by the tornado to see anything so I'm not killing myself over missing the action Wednesday. Did get a good wall cloud with condensation fingers at least.



Second here is from the Interstate 72 corridor HP supercell from near Springfield to Champaign, as it became a bow echo. Never came super close to producing a tornado as it remained rooted on the cold side of the boundary, but we did get a couple good areas of rotation, and some gusty erratic winds as the mesocyclone passed overhead.

Warm front play today

After Wednesday, I'm ready for some weather revenge.

Looks like a classic warm front day in western and central Illinois this evening. Abundant clear skies south of the warm front should allow rapid destabilization and a northward surge of the front this afternoon. Should be around Interstate 72 by around 4 PM. Will be key in getting a supercell to initiate and latch on to the warm front, but should it do so, classic hockey stick hodographs would certainly favor tornado development.

I'd watch the Interstate 72 corridor from Jacksonville to Decatur this evening.

Wednesday; Close, and still there.

This is phenomenal. A severe weather setup has shown up on the models at long range, and now only 48 hours out is still there. Not only that, but I believe a fairly significant severe weather threat may exist over parts of Illinois and Missouri.

Looks like the "classic" outbreak zone of east central Missouri into central Illinois may be the hot spot for another active day.

Current thoughts remain more or less unchanged as of a couple days ago, which is a good sign. I hate multiple target days, as I often second guess myself into missing things, or just waiting too long to commit. This time, at least 48 hours out, I'm sticking to my guns and it will just be up to the weather to prove me right or wrong.

There will be a ton of convection in IL on Wednesday. The bulk of the main complex should track east into Indiana by early afternoon, allowing for clearing behind it, along the E-W boundary laid down. I'd look along this boundary in EC MO and SW IL for new supercellular development. Likely around Columbia, Missouri, tracking into western and southwestern Illinois. A high cape / theta-e area will be nosing into this area with sbcape nearing 2000 j/kg. That along with helicity values above 350, nearing 500 closer to Interstate 72 will be more than adequate for discrete thunderstorms (talking ahead of the cold front here, folks) and potentially tornadoes. There will be a strongly forced line of thunderstorms along the cold front by nightfall, but I don't intend to be anywhere near the cold front during the chase.

I'll continue eyeing an area in SW Illinois near Litchfield, along Interstate 55 south of Springfeld and north of St. Louis.