Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Wednesday; Close, and still there.

This is phenomenal. A severe weather setup has shown up on the models at long range, and now only 48 hours out is still there. Not only that, but I believe a fairly significant severe weather threat may exist over parts of Illinois and Missouri.

Looks like the "classic" outbreak zone of east central Missouri into central Illinois may be the hot spot for another active day.

Current thoughts remain more or less unchanged as of a couple days ago, which is a good sign. I hate multiple target days, as I often second guess myself into missing things, or just waiting too long to commit. This time, at least 48 hours out, I'm sticking to my guns and it will just be up to the weather to prove me right or wrong.

There will be a ton of convection in IL on Wednesday. The bulk of the main complex should track east into Indiana by early afternoon, allowing for clearing behind it, along the E-W boundary laid down. I'd look along this boundary in EC MO and SW IL for new supercellular development. Likely around Columbia, Missouri, tracking into western and southwestern Illinois. A high cape / theta-e area will be nosing into this area with sbcape nearing 2000 j/kg. That along with helicity values above 350, nearing 500 closer to Interstate 72 will be more than adequate for discrete thunderstorms (talking ahead of the cold front here, folks) and potentially tornadoes. There will be a strongly forced line of thunderstorms along the cold front by nightfall, but I don't intend to be anywhere near the cold front during the chase.

I'll continue eyeing an area in SW Illinois near Litchfield, along Interstate 55 south of Springfeld and north of St. Louis.

1 comment:

Chuck said...

I've been following the same information too. See you out and about.