Tuesday, May 5, 2009

Thursday Warm Front Play?

With the forecast models being in their current state, talking about this is probably ill-advised. However, I'll mention anyway that I'm seeing a possible warm front event in the midwest on Thursday afternoon, May 7th. The current area to watch at this point looks like northern Missouri around Kirksville, east towards Champaign, Illinois and then south to Interstate 70. Basically most of central Illinois and northern and eastern Missouri.

Model trends will have to be monitored, and this setup could very well vanish by tonight's run. However, looking at a combination of models, current data and trends, and climatology I feel this bares watching. Thunderstorm clusters will be likely early in the day and will largely affect the overall thermodynamic profiles, but may also aid the situation with associated boundary creations. Hodographs will already be largely curved along the warm front which would support supercell thunderstorms and mesocylone development.

I might as well stop here, because the current pattern is already very unstable and changing constantly, but figured this was worth mentioning.

1 comment:

Chuck said...

Andrew if you chase today in my area more then welcome to stop in and say hello. I can't chase this week due to work commitments.